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What Now?
by Rick Ackerman

The Dow Industrials slightly exceeded a 9807 target first broached here four months ago, leaving us to ask: What next? Usually, even a very slight penetration of a hidden-pivot resistance implies that the dominant trend will continue, and that is what we shall infer for now. (This is notwithstanding the fact we ended the day nominally short the Indoos on paper). Tuesday’s high was 9812.98, and although a mere 6-point overshoot of my target may not sound like much, it’s plenty enough to imply that the pivot has been shredded, defenestrated, chopped, sliced, diced, gutted, impaled and disemboweled. So we need a new target now, and fabricating one requires only that we consider the still unachieved pivots of some other, bullish patterns. The two nearest lie, respectively, at 9848.83, then at 9919.44.  Very cautiously bullish we remain, but we’ll be monitoring the action at each rally target for signs of a bearish turn – one that will manifest itself on a one-minute bar chart well before it rankles CNBC’s crude seismographs. o:p>

 

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(Note: I am unable to access chart data for certain stocks and indexes at the moment, so my forecasts for Wednesday are incomplete. My apologies for any inconvenience this may cause.)o:p>

 

[The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]

 

$ + DJIA (9812.98):  Yesterday’s slight breach of an important hidden pivot at 9807 implies the Dow is likely to head higher. In any event, stick to the 9821 stop if you got short the mini-contract near the close, switching to a 20-point trailing stop below 9770. Use 9640 as your minimum objective. If the Dow rallies, you’ll be able to gauge the strength of the move by the resiliency of the two hidden pivots given above: 9848.83 and 9919.44. An easy move through the lower number would imply that the higher is on its way.

 

DEC  E-MINI S&Ps (1047.50):  I allowed a top as high as 1049.75, so we must regard yesterday’s actual high at 1049.50 as potentially important until it is breached. If the futures gap above 1051.00 and are holding above that price after the first two hours of the session, I’d infer they’re staging for a shot at 1070.00, the next major pivot above these levels.

 

DEC BONDS (106.29) The futures are once again flirting with a bearish “trigger” at 106.27, but we’ll reserve judgment for now about whether the Decembers’ having kissed that number yesterday will turn the intermediate-term trend bearish.

 

OEX (523.30): No data available.

 

QQQ  (35.33):  No data available.

 

DEC GOLD (376.20):  It’ll take a two-day close above 380.10, a hidden pivot, to get out of immediate jeopardy.  Otherwise, a relapse to below 367.30 would telegraph a correction to as low as 356.10.

 

DEC NASDAQ E-MINI (1424.00):  My immediate upside target is 1437.00, the nearest hidden pivot of significance. I am not recommending that you try to go short there, although any longs held on your initiative can be scaled out along the way.

 

***

 

INTC (31.08): No data available, although the 33.27 target given here earlier remains viable.

 

FNM (72.89):  I’ve projected a move to as high as 76.13 over the next 4-6 days, but first the stock must reach, then surmount, a lesser hidden pivot at 73.80. Let’s make that our minimum target for the next 2-3 days.

 

+   C  (49.00):  We hold twenty October 40 puts for an average 1.21. 52.52 remains my minimum upside target for the next 3-4 weeks, but more immediately there is a hidden pivot at 50.23 that can serve as our minimum objective for the near term.

 

+   GG (14.85):  We hold 300 shares for an average 5.34. My minimum upside target is 15.83, but if the stock can better that price by more than 2 cents, look for the short-term rally cycle to continue to at least 16.59, a major hidden pivot where we should take some profits.

 

+   HL (5.90):  We hold the December 7.50 – October 7.50 calls spread ten times for 0.30. By holding above a hidden-pivot resistance at 5.76, Hecla signaled an imminent move to a slightly higher target at 6.03. The stock will need to go a bit higher than that, though --  to 6.06 -- to renew the bullish cycle begun last Monday from 5.22.

 

$  +  RANGY (13.33):  We hold 400 shares for an average 10.12. Cancel the 11.69 bid, since the stock is moving away.

 

$   +   RGLD (19.87): We hold 400 shares with an 11.88 basis.  We’ll cancel the 17.77 bid, which the current rally has left in the dust.

 

IBM (92.72):  No change. My minimum rally target over the near term remains 94.97, but we won’t try to get short there today, since the target is likely out of reach.

 

$  +   EBAY  (60.46):  We’re long two October 60 calls for a 1.75 CREDIT apiece after selling two on the opening for 0.75. Just in case the stock revives, let’s offer the last two calls to close for 1.60 each, day order.

MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.